Leaving the Lyceum

Can large language models – known by the acronym LLM – reason? 

This is a hotly debated topic in so-called ‘tech’ circles and the academic and media groups that orbit that world like one of Jupiter’s radiation blasted moons.  I dropped the phrase, ‘can large language models reason’ into Google, (that rusting machine) and got this result:

This is only a small sample. According to Google there are “About 352.000.000 results.” We can safely conclude from this, and the back and forth that endlessly repeats on Twitter in groups that discuss ‘AI’ that there is a lot of interest in arguing the matter: pro and con. Is this debate, if indeed it can be called that, the least bit important? What is at stake?

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According to ‘AI’ industry enthusiasts, nearly everything is at stake; a bold new world of thinking machines is upon us. What could be more important?  To answer this question, let’s do another Google search, this time, for the phrase, Project Nimbus:

The first result returned was a Wikipedia article, which starts with this:

Project Nimbus (Hebrew: פרויקט נימבוס) is a cloud computing project of the Israeli government and its military. The Israeli Finance Ministry announced in April 2021, that the contract is to provide “the government, the defense establishment, and others with an all-encompassing cloud solution.” Under the contract, the companies will establish local cloud sites that will “keep information within Israel’s borders under strict security guidelines.”

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Nimbus

What sorts of things does Israel do with the system described above? We don’t have precise details but there are clues such as what’s described in this excerpt from the +972 Magazine article, ‘A mass assassination factory’: Inside Israel’s calculated bombing of Gaza’ –

According to the [+972 Magazine] investigation, another reason for the large number of targets, and the extensive harm to civilian life in Gaza, is the widespread use of a system called “Habsora” (“The Gospel”), which is largely built on artificial intelligence and can “generate” targets almost automatically at a rate that far exceeds what was previously possible. This AI system, as described by a former intelligence officer, essentially facilitates a “mass assassination factory.”

+972: https://www.972mag.com/mass-assassination-factory-israel-calculated-bombing-gaza/

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History, and legend tell us that in ancient Athens there was a place called the Lyceum, founded by Aristotle, where the techniques of the Peripatetic school were practiced. Peripatetic means, more or less, ‘walking about’ which reflects the method: philosophers and students, mingling freely, discussing ideas. There are centuries of accumulated hagiography about this school. No doubt it was nice for those not subject to the slave system of ancient Greece.

Similarly, debates about whether or not LLMs can reason are nice for those of us not subject to hellfire missiles, fired by Apache helicopters sent on their errands based on targeting algorithms. But, I am aware of the pain of people who are subject to those missiles. I can’t unsee the death facilitated by computation.

This is why I have to leave the debating square, the social media crafted lyceum. Do large language models reason? No. But even spending time debating the question offends me now. A more pressing question is what the people building the systems killing our fellow human beings are thinking. What is their reasoning?

ChatGPT: Super Rentier

I have avoided writing about ChatGPT as one might hurriedly walk past a group of co-workers, gathered around a box of donuts who’re talking about a popular movie or show; to avoid being drawn into the inevitable.

In some circles, certainly the circles I travel in, ChatGPT is the relentless talk of the town. Everyone from LinkedIn hucksters who claimed to be making millions from the platform, only moments after it was released, to the usual ‘AI’ enthusiasts who take any opportunity to sweatily declare a new era of machine intelligence upon us – and of course, a scattering of people carefully analyzing the actually existing nuts and bolts – everyone seems to be promoting, debating and shouting about ChatGPT.

You can imagine me, dear reader, in the midst of this drama, quietly sitting in a timeworn leather chair, slowly sipping a glass of wine while a stream of text, video and audio, all about ChatGPT, that silicon, would-be Golem, washes over me

What roused me from my torpor was the news Microsoft was investing 10 billion dollars in OpenAI, the organization behind ChatGPT and other ballyhooed large language model systems (see: “Microsoft’s $10bn bet on ChatGPT developer marks new era of AI”). Even for Microsoft, that’s a lot of money. Behind all this, is Microsoft’s significant investment in what it calls purpose built, AI supercomputers such as VOYAGER-EUS2 to train and host platforms such as ChatGPT. Although tender minded naifs believe corporations are using large scale computation to advance humanity, more sober minds are inclined to ask fundamental questions such as, why?

The answer came from the Microsoft article, “General availability of Azure OpenAI Service expands access to large, advanced AI models with added enterprise benefits.” Note that phrase, enterprise benefits.’ The audience for this article is surely techie and techie adjacent (and here, I must raise my hand) but even if neither of these categories describes you I suggest giving it a read.  There’s also an introductory video, providing a walkthrough of using the OpenAI tooling that’s mediated via the Microsoft Azure cloud platform.

Microsoft Video on OpenAI Platforms, Integrated with Azure

As I watched this video, the purpose of all those billions and the hardware it bought became clear to me; Microsoft and its chief competitors, Amazon and an apparently panicked Google (plus, less well known organizations) are seeking to extend the rentier model of cloud computing, which turns computation, storage and database services into a rented utility and recurring revenue source for the cloud firm that maintains the hardware – even for the largest corporate customers – into the ‘AI’ space, creating super rentier platforms which will spawn subordinate, sub-rentier platforms:

Imagine the following…

A San Francisco based startup, let’s give it a terrible name, Talkist, announces it has developed a remarkable, groundbreaking chat application (and by the way, ‘groundbreaking’ is required alongside ‘next generation’) which will enable companies around the world to replace customer service personnel with Talkist’s ‘intelligent’, ‘ethical’ system. Talkist, which only consists of a few people (mostly men) and a stereotypical, ‘visionary’ leader, probably wearing a thousand dollar t-shirt, doesn’t have the capital, or the desire to build the computational infrastructure required to host such a system.

This is where the Azure/OpenAI complex of systems comes to the rescue of our plucky band of well-funded San Franciscans. Instead of diverting precious venture capital into purchasing data center space and the computers to fill it, that money can be poured into creating applications which utilize Microsoft/OpenAI cloud services. Microsoft/OpenAI rent ‘AI’ capabilities to Talkist who in turn, rent ‘AI’ capabilities to other companies who think they can replace people with text generating, pattern matching systems (ironically, OpenAI itself is dependent on exploited labor as the Time Magazine article, “OpenAI Used Kenyan Workers on Less Than $2 Per Hour to Make ChatGPT Less Toxic” shows).

What a time to be alive.

Of course, the uses (and from the perspective of profit-driven organizations, cost savings) don’t end with chatty software. We can imagine magazines and other publications, weary of having to employ troublesome human beings with their demands for salaries, health care and decent lives (The gall! Are there no workhouses? Are there no prisons?) rushing to use these systems to ‘write’ – or perhaps we should say, mechanistically assemble,  articles and news stories, reducing the need for writers who are an annoying class (I wink at you dear reader for I am the opposite of annoying – being a delightful mixture of cologne, Bordeaux and dialectical analysis). Unsurprisingly, and let’s indulge our desire for a bit of the old schadenfreude, amusingly there are problems such as those detailed in the articles “CNET Is Reviewing the Accuracy of All Its AI-Written Articles After Multiple Major Corrections. and, “CNET’s AI Journalist Appears to Have Committed Extensive Plagiarism.”

Of all the empires that have stalked the Earth, the tech imperium is, perhaps, the bullshitiest. The Romans derived their power from myths, yes, but also, roads, aqueducts and organized violence – real things in a real world.  The US empire has its own set of myths, such as a belief that sitting in a car, in traffic, is the pinnacle of freedom and in meritocracy (a notion wielded by the most mediocre minds to explain their comforts). Once again however, real things, such as possessing the world’s reserve currency and the capacity for ultra-violence lurk behind the curtain.

The tech empire, by contrast, is built, using the Monorail maneuver detailed in this Simpsons episode, on false claims prettily presented. It has inserted itself between us and the things we need – information, memories, creativity. The tech industry has hijacked a variety of commons and then rents us access to what should be open. In its ‘AI’ incarnation, the tech industry attempts to replace human reason with computer power, a fool’s errand, which computer scientist Joseph Weizenbaum dissected almost 50 years ago,  but a goal motivated by a desire to increase the rate of profit in an era of creeping stagnation by reducing the need for labor.

Rather than being a refutation of Marx and Engel’s analysis as some, such as Yanis Varoufakis with his ‘cloudalist’ hypothesis bafflingly claim, we are indeed, still very much dealing with the human grinding workings of capitalist logics, wearing a prop, science fiction film costume, claiming to have come in peace.

ChatGPT isn’t a research platform or the herald of a new age of computation; it is the embodiment of the revenue stream dreams of the tech industry, the super-rentier.

Techno-Skepticism: A Tactical Skill

Techno-skepticism is a vital and necessary response to a world awash in self-promoting boosterism and the capitalist utilized ideologies of techno-optimism and techno-determinism.

To define terms, techno-optimism is the belief any proposed technology is possible and good. Optimists look to past examples of things that were once impossible which became possible – such as machine flight – and infer this tendency is universal.

Techno-determinism (which can be considered a species of determinism) builds on tech-optimism’s ideological framework by asserting not just possibility, but inevitability.

For example, a techno-optimist views a development such as ‘robot’ kitchens as being both positive and possible as presented – determinists assert there’s nothing to stop such a development: it’s inevitable and beyond resistance, like gravity.

Robotic Chef Marketing Video

Skepticism, correctly practiced, isn’t the denial of technological change or the reality of, or potential for, benefits from such change. Skepticism is remembering to ask three questions:

  • How does this work? A technical inspection
  • Is it possible as described? A feasibility interrogation

Consider, for example, Amazon’s failed drone delivery service, which Cory Doctorow analyzed here – As Doctorow describes, this idea was inexplicably taken seriously:

When Amazon announced “Prime Air,” a forthcoming drone delivery service, in 2016, there was a curious willingness on the part of the press – even the tech press – to take the promise of a sky full of delivery drones at face value.

This despite the obvious problems with such a scheme: the consequences of midair collisions, short battery life, overhead congestion, regulatory hurdles and more. Also despite the fact that delivery drones, like jetpacks, are really only practical as sfx in an sf movie.”

At the time this proposed service was announced, I read detailed analyses and excited Tweet threads about the supposed meaning of a bold new age of drone delivery. I noticed however, that simple questions regarding feasibility were rarely asked – optimism and determinism (with a good amount of self-interested boosterism in the mix) prevented a skeptical response

When you read about a technological system, such as delivery via drone, remembering to ask questions about function (the how), benefit (who’s promoting this and why) and feasibility (can this be done at all or as the promoters describe?) is a reliable way to avoid being fooled and knocked from delusion to delusion.