The F-35 Maneuver

Bad ideas, like death, are inevitable and just as inescapable.

The US-based tech industry is a Pandora’s box of bad ideas, unleashed upon an unwilling and unwitting populace, and indeed world, with reckless abandon, scorching lives and the Earth itself. Never mind, they say, we’re building the future.

The latest bad idea to spread dark wings and take flight is that building a super massive data center for ‘AI’ called ‘Stargate’- a megamachine that will solve all our problems like a resource and real estate devouring Wizard of Oz – is not only good, but essential.

In an Associated Press article titled, ‘Trump highlights partnership investing $500 billion in AI‘ published Jan 23, 2025, the project is described:

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Tuesday talked up a joint venture investing up to $500 billion for infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence by a new partnership formed by OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank.

The new entity, Stargate, will start building out data centers and the electricity generation needed for the further development of the fast-evolving AI in Texas, according to the White House. The initial investment is expected to be $100 billion and could reach five times that sum.

“It’s big money and high quality people,” said Trump, adding that it’s “a resounding declaration of confidence in America’s potential” under his new administration.

[…]

It seems like only yesterday, or more precisely, several months ago, that the same ‘Stargate’, with a still astronomically large but comparatively smaller budget, was described in a Tom’s Hardware article of March 24, 2024 titled ‘OpenAI and Microsoft reportedly planning $100 billion datacenter project for an AI supercomputer‘ –

Microsoft and OpenAI are reportedly working on a massive datacenter to house an AI-focused supercomputer featuring millions of GPUs. The Information reports that the project could cost “in excess of $115 billion” and that the supercomputer, currently dubbed “Stargate” inside OpenAI, would be U.S.-based. 

The report says that Microsoft would foot the bill for the datacenter, which could be “100 times more costly” than some of the biggest operating centers today. Stargate would be the largest in a string of datacenter projects the two companies hope to build in the next six years, and executives hope to have it running by 2028.

[…]

Bad ideas are inevitable but also, apparently, subject to cost overruns.

There are many ways to think and talk about this project, which is certain to fail (and there is news of far less costly methods, making the Olympian spending even more obviously suspicious). For me, the clearest way to understand the Stargate project and in fact, the entire ‘AI’ land grab, is as an attempt to create guaranteed profit for those tech firms who’re at the commanding heights – Microsoft, OpenAI, Amazon, Oracle and co-conspirators. Capital will flow into these firms whether the system works as advertised or not – i.e. they are paid for both function (such as it is) and malfunction.

This isn’t a new technique. The US defense industry has a long history of stuffing its coffers with cash for delivering weapons systems that work… sometimes. The most infamous example is Lockheed’s F-35 fighter, a project that provides the company with funding for both delivery and correction as described in the US Government Accounting Office article, ‘F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: More Actions Needed to Explain Cost Growth and Support Engine Modernization Decision’ May 2023 –

The Department of Defense’s most expensive weapon system—the F-35 aircraft—is now more than a decade behind schedule and $183 billion over original cost estimates.

[…]

That’s a decade and 183 billion of sweet, steady profit, the sort of profit the tech industry has long sought. First there was ‘enterprise software’, then there was subscription-based cloud, both efforts to create ‘growth’ and dependable cash infusions. Now, with Stargate, the industry may have, at last, found its F-35. Unlike the troubled fighter plane, there won’t be any Tom Cruise films featuring the data center. Then again, perhaps there will be. Netflix, like the rest of the industry, is out of ideas.

On Kludges

As I type this, it’s hot here in Amsterdam. In the past, one might have said ‘unseasonably warm’ a phrase that, in our current circumstances, seems like a form of wishful thinking, an echo of an earlier time – not more innocent but not as burdened with the hyper-problem of C02. I mention the temperature, and add the fact that I don’t have air conditioning (because traditionally, it wasn’t needed), to set expectations; this may not be the sharpest bit of work. But then again, perhaps I’ll rise, like the temperature, to the occasion.

But enough preamble.

In a recent edition of educator and angry Marxist uncle Derrick Varn’s ever excellent Youtube program, Varn Vlog, the subject of ‘kludges’ is discussed. Merriam Webster states that  a kludge is “a haphazard or makeshift solution to a problem and especially to a computer or programming problem” which is precisely right. Varn builds on the theme of kludges to explain the provisional character of modern systems – not just technical but bureaucracies, corporations, and so on.

I know a thing or two about kludges, having worked in the technology industry for decades – an industry that is essentially a massive ziggurat of kludges, covered by a polished surface to hide the stone knives, bear skins, rubber bands, glue and endless scurrying about. Apple, for example, pretends to run with the smooth efficiency of a Borg cube but is really an assemblage of various kludges, deployed to increase market share and profitability (the only real goals).

Now I’m going to tell you a brief story about a kludge I was compelled to put into place, forced, as Varn would note, by path dependencies. The story’s point isn’t to elicit sympathy (or perhaps, considering the system I’m describing, horror) but to give you a glimpse into just how right Varn is and how sloppy things can be. This is only one of many such stories I could tell.

The Saga of Phil’s Server

Once upon a time, never mind how many years ago, I was consulting at an energy company, let’s call it SPARK which, in addition to owning a variety of power generation systems – hydro, fossil, nuclear, across the continental US – also had an energy futures trading division. This division, which I’ll call SPARK-HYPERION because it captures the degree of self regard and the amount of money generated (many billions) was responsible for calculating the available excess generating capacity of SPARK’s fleet of assets alongside weather conditions in various markets and the correspondingly forecasted need. SPARK is part of the PJM Interconnection network which makes it possible to send power between regions.

PJM Interconnect – Example Data

Here’s the scenario: 

Let’s say that a weather event in a neighboring region (perhaps a heat wave) increases electricity demand in excess of that region’s capacity. Through the interconnection of regions, SPARK could send spare power from its assets to the region in need, but of course, for a price, generating a profit from the trade. The forecasting of potential need in neighboring regions, based on a combination of real-time weather satellite data, and real-time power generation data was considered a key strategic capability and millions were spent on keeping this at a state of the art level (one project I led was creating a method for distributing the computational requirements for analysis across the spare capacity of idle office PCs at night – that was fun).

Forecasting.

Keep this word in mind because it explains what happens next in our story.

Energy futures traders needed data from power plants to determine what was available on the market. This is why Phil (of course, not his real name) had access to a live feed of the megawatt output of a nuclear power plant that was part of SPARK’s generating portfolio. What Phil’s requirement didn’t explain was the reason this system, which connected to the nuke plant’s SCADA, showing, via a web interface, coolant levels and other critical things, was under his desk.  What his job requirement also didn’t explain was why that system was available to pretty much everyone on the corporate network. Just drop the address of the server into your browser and poof! Instant access to nuke plant data. 

The Tru64 Unix system that connected to a nuclear power plant was under Phil’s desk, within easy reach of anyone strolling by with their terrible office coffee; not in a data center.  That was the first kludge; a rushed together ‘solution’ designed to give Phil the data he needed with minimal latency but also, as a knock on effect, minimal security. I discovered this troublesome computer during a security assessment of the corporate network using a Nessus vulnerability scanner system I created from a spare PC running the Linux operating system. There I was, sitting at my desk, sipping tea like a character in a BBC murder mystery. The results showed a system, on the corporate network, running a web server. How interesting. I browsed to the site, saw the status of a nuclear power plant, and nearly spat out my tea. Quietly, I walked into the office of the VP of information technology. ‘If you don’t want an unpleasant visit from Homeland Security and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission‘, I started, ‘I suggest you listen to what I’m about to tell you.’ What a marvelous, completely normal day.

The second kludge was from me, a forced mitigation compelled by path dependencies including palpable executive fear of disrupting, for even the shortest of moments, Phil’s multimillion dollar generating workflow by moving the system to where it should have been all along, the data center (no reader, not even an after hour or weekend move was permitted – no one wanted to be the exec who said yes to that in case anything went wrong). I couldn’t move the system to a more secure location, with all that would have meant for enhanced monitoring and control so, of necessity, I had to bring more security to Phil’s desk.

I received authorization to install a multi-thousand dollar Cisco firewall, designed to sit comfortably in a professionally managed data center,  providing network security services to hundreds if not thousands of systems, under Phil’s already busy desk. This was a kludge on top of a kludge. Ladies and gentlemen, this was a multi-billion dollar firm.

Classic Cisco Network Topology

A Fable of Competence

In modern mythology, by which I mean marketing, technologies are deployed in companies with a cool competence building on past perfection with new perfection: shiny and flawless. In reality, despite our best efforts, complex systems accrue debts: past compromises force new compromises to ensure the entire system continues to function. Keep this in mind the next time you think about your bank or credit card company or Meta or Google or the world as a whole.