There’s a story we tell ourselves, a lullaby, really, which is that science fiction is a predictor of the terrain of that magical land, always just over the horizon, ‘the future.’ This story is deeply embedded in the consciousness of US’ians, (no, I’m not calling people from the US alone ‘Americans’ as if the rest of the Americas is in another hemisphere) even by people who don’t care for stories about spacecraft, robots and malevolent AI (always malevolent, for some reason, a sign of some aspect of US thinking requiring psychoanalytic investigation).

The evidence for this tendency is all around us; every ‘Black Mirror’ episode, for example, is treated as if it’s a prognostication from Nostradamus; the same tired tales of out of control AI, murderous machines and derelict space colonies cycled again and again, each time treated like a bold revelation of Things to Come.

Of course, there is real technological change; we have mobile, computer radio phones with glass screens and ICBMs, things our great grandparents would have found miraculous for a little while before the phone bills came due and the nuclear missiles, patiently waiting in their silos, were forgotten to aid sleep. It’s undeniable that we live in a world shaped by applied scientific inquiry and technological modification. These things have a social impact and fashion our political economy, driven by profit motivations. That’s the reality; the idea there’s a feedback loop between science fiction and what someone will breathlessly shout to be ‘science fact!’ is not entirely bankrupt, but there’s a mustiness to it, it smells like mouldy bread, slathered in butter and presented as still fresh.

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All of which brings me to an essay published in the Atlantic “When Sci-Fi Anticipates Reality.” There’s a laziness to this piece which may not be the author – Lora Kelley’s fault – after all, the topic itself is weary.

Here’s an excerpt:

Reading about this news, [Meta adding legs to avatars] I told my editor—mostly as a joke—that the metaverse users interested in accessing alternative realities and stepping into other lives should consider simply reading a novel. I stand by that cranky opinion, but it also got me thinking about the fact that the metaverse actually owes a lot to the novel. The term metaverse was coined in a 1992 science-fiction novel titled Snow Crash. (The book also helped popularize the term avatar, to refer to digital selves.) And when you start to look for them, you can find links between science fiction and real-world tech all over.

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/08/science-fiction-technology/675206/

The word “cranky” is used and I admit to feeling a bit cranky myself after reading this attempt to link a product Meta is struggling to make viable (using actual computers requiring power and labor) with a term from a novel as old as someone with credit problems. There’s about as much of a connection between the ‘metaverse’ nightmaringly imagined in Snow Crash and what Meta is capable of as between a piece of paper upon which someone has written the word, ‘laser’ and an actual laser.

A bit later in the piece, another favorite of the science fiction to fact genre gets its time in the sun, ‘anticipation’ –

Ross Andersen, an Atlantic writer who covers science and technology, also told me he suspects that “a messy feedback loop” operates between sci-fi and real-world tech. Both technologists and writers who have come up with fresh ideas, he said, “might have simply been responding to the same preexisting human desires: to explore the deep ocean and outer space, or to connect with anyone on Earth instantaneously.” Citing examples such as Jules Verne’s novels and Isaac Asimov’s stories, Ross added that “whether or not science fiction influenced technology, it certainly anticipated a lot of it.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/08/science-fiction-technology/675206/

Leaving aside the question of whether there is indeed a “preexisting human desire” to explore outer space (and thus far, almost all of our examples of ‘exploration’ have been for exploitation so one wonders if other desires were being met) there’s an ironic assertion that ‘fresh ideas’ are what’s on offer. Fresh ideas, like a warmed over Second Life platform based, in name if not experienced reality, on a decades old novel. 

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2023 is not the year of bold new visions, brought to life by intrepid scientists and technologists inspired by science fiction (it’s always warmed over cyberpunk and Asimov, never Stanislaw Lem, I note). It’s the year in which the industry runs, like a rat in flames, from one thing to another – crypto, web3, metaverse, AI, generative AI and chatbots for every task. This isn’t evidence of a ‘messy feedback loop’ but of an emptiness, a void. The bag of tricks is almost empty. Where will the new profits come from?

Perhaps there is a feedback loop after all, from stale idea to stale implementation, all wrapped in a marketing bow and sold as new when it’s as old as a Jules Verne novel.